When Boris Johnson took over Downing Street in July, he blustered about taking Britain out of the EU by an October 31 deadline. No ifs, no buts. Just do it. He said "deal or no deal" the United Kingdom was leaving the bloc. The prospect of a crash-out, no-deal "hard Brexit" loomed.
But bumptious Boris has rowed back considerably. He is putting a draft deal hatched this week with the EU to a vote today in the British Parliament in an extraordinary weekend sitting. Johnson's departure arrangement with Brussels marks a significant climbdown.
He's no longer telling the EU "to go whistle." His proposal, which Brussels has signed off on, concedes aligning Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland under EU customs regulations. That avoids the return of a physical border on the island of Ireland, which would have been politically explosive to the peace process in that country with a recent legacy of conflict.
In that way, Johnson's draft deal is not too dissimilar to that of his predecessor Theresa May, who also sought to avoid an Irish border with her "backstop" formula. The net result is that Ireland will, in practice, be in economic unity, while customs controls for maintaining the EU's single market will be drawn between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
It's another high-wire act for Johnson's cabinet to get the latest Brexit episode past parliament. This prime minister's record of success is dismal, having been defeated several times already in House of Commons votes.
Johnson's Conservative government is betting on a long shot in a topsy-turvy numbers game. With 287 Tory MPs, he doesn't have an outright parliamentary majority since he kicked out 21 rebel MPs who defied him in a vote last month. That means to get his draft Brexit deal through, he needs those renegade lawmakers to come back into the party fold. With such bad blood, that's far from certain.
Even if the Tory rebels forgive Johnson, that's still not enough to get over the line of a 320-vote majority. Johnson will require some opposition MPs from Labour, Lib-Dems, Scottish Nationalist Party and others to join his ranks to vote Yes. The opposition parties have said they don't approve of the latest deal. So, Johnson is going to have to rely on a handful of rebels within Labour to back him.
Without a deal being passed in parliament, the hapless Johnson will be obliged to seek a three-month extension from the EU for more negotiations. A new law passed last month by the British Parliament forbids a no-deal Brexit. If Johnson decides to crash out, he could then be embroiled in a court battle for defying the law. That's unlikely because he has recently cast off his previous gung-ho attitude to seek a deal with other EU leaders. In the event of another parliamentary defeat, Britain's ongoing political impasse over Brexit will probably trigger a snap general election. That's another whirl of the Brexit wheel of fortune, or misfortune.
If a deal somehow squeezes through parliament this weekend, Britain will be able to officially leave the EU by October 31. But the departure is still subject to more years of negotiating the transition for trade and regulations between Britain and Brussels....<<<<Read The Full Article Here>>>...