For Ed Miliband, it’s a truly awkward moment.
His own statisticians have released data showing that Britain’s North Sea will produce a billion barrels of oil and gas fewer than expected between now and 2050 – with analysts linking the downgrade to Labour’s imposition of 78% taxes and a ban on new drilling.
The assessment, by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the Government regulator that reports to Mr Miliband, suggests the UK will have to import a far higher proportion of its oil and gas over the next 25 years.
According to a separate analysis, the accelerated decline of the North Sea could see half the 200,000 jobs it supports destroyed by 2030.
Many of those will be in Scotland, where elections due next year make such potential losses seriously risky for Labour’s prospects.
“We have already seen a 10% reduction in output – equating to 100,000 barrels of oil a day, replaced by imports,” said Chris Wheaton, an energy analyst with investment bank Stifel. “This will increase the longer the windfall tax stays in place – reaching 20% below previous forecasts by 2030.”
The downgrade in North Sea output emerges from comparing the production projections published by the NSTA in 2023 – before the election – with the latest versions, just published.
In autumn 2023, the NSTA predicted the UK would produce oil and gas equivalent to 681 million tonnes of oil between 2025 and 2050.
In the latest equivalent data, this has now been slashed to 557 million tonnes. The ‘lost’ 124 million tonnes equates to a billion barrels of oil....<<<Read More>>>...
