Modelling from Professor Neil Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College London published on March 16, 2020, predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed within weeks and a terrible death toll would arise if nothing was done to stop the spread of the disease.
Prior to the ‘Report 9’ paper, the Government’s initial Covid strategy had been to ‘mitigate’ the spread and build up ‘herd immunity’ rather than suppress the first wave.
However, sticking to these plans – allowing the spread to continue but slowing it down with limited measures such as home isolation – would still have resulted in 250,000 deaths, according to Imperial’s mathematical model.
The stark modelling is understood to have single-handedly led to the decision to move away from herd immunity to a national lockdown on March 23.
But minutes from a SPI-M (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling) meeting released to The Telegraph following a Freedom of Information request have shown that, a week earlier, the modellers remained ‘uncertain’ of case numbers ‘due to data limitations’.
Modellers were still waiting for more comprehensive data on mortality from Public Health England and then best estimates on infection fatality rate, hospitalisation rates and the number of patients requiring ICU care were still uncertain.
The team is also understood to have believed that the modelling only showed ‘proof of concept’ that lockdowns could help deal with Covid, before warning that ‘further work would be required’.
Following the release of its model, Imperial College held a press conference, followed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordering the public to avoid pubs, restaurants and non-essential social gatherings later the same day.
At the briefing, Prof Ferguson said new conclusions had been drawn as ‘the last few days’ had provided ‘refinements’ in estimates of intensive care and hospital demand.
