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Friday 4 September 2009

So we're not all going to die of swine flu after all: Chief medical officer reduces death estimates by two-thirds

Deaths from swine flu could be less than half the annual toll from the usual winter flu, it emerged last night.

The news came as an expert accused ministers of an 'alarmist' response to the outbreak. England's chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson was forced to admit yesterday that the worst case scenario had been slashed by two thirds from 65,000 deaths to 19,000. After millions were spent on antiviral drugs and telephone hotlines, he revealed the toll could be as low as 3,000 - less than half the number who die in an average flu season.

Even a total of 19,000 deaths would be 2,000 lower than the number who died in the last major seasonal flu epidemic of 1999-2000.

The startling admission comes only weeks after Health Secretary Andy Burnham said there could be as many as 100,000 new swine flu cases a day. In fact it emerged that last week there were now fewer than 650 new cases a day.

Sir Liam is facing growing criticism that he caused panic as the virus turns out to be much milder than originally feared. Yesterday he unveiled new guidance for the NHS, describing a range from 3,000 deaths to a 'worst case scenario' of 19,000 - significantly lower than the 65,000 he warned of in July. (Daily Mail)