Lord Hayward said the Prime Minister would suffer heavy losses in English council elections, defeat in the Welsh Senedd and a “battering” in the Scottish Parliament on May 7th.
Dismal results for Labour could reignite the question of whether Sir Keir should continue to lead the party, which exploded into the headlines in November following an anonymous briefing from his allies against potential rivals.
In England, results will depend on where elections go ahead, with several councils expected to defer polls to 2027 to focus on a reorganisation of local government.
But elections in London and other metropolitan areas in Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire are set to go ahead.
While these areas have recently been Labour-dominated, Lord Hayward said the party was heading for defeats to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and, in east London, pro-Gaza independent candidates.
Even the Conservatives could pick up seats in London, he said, although the Tories’ overall result will depend on whether elections go ahead in counties where they won heavily in 2021.
Gains in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help shore up Kemi Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader, which has appeared more secure in recent months.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, said: “A few months ago, it looked as if May 7th would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.
“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
He added that while Labour and possibly the Conservatives were on course to lose seats in May, there would be no clear victor, but a “cacophony of winners”.
Lord Hayward said Reform – starting from a low base – was likely to make the most gains, but a range of other parties were expected to claim some sort of victory on the night, with a clear picture perhaps only emerging in the days following the elections.
Despite what could be significant changes in England, Lord Hayward suggested it was the results in Scotland and Wales that could have the most long-term significance for the UK.
Labour had been expecting to supplant the SNP and return to power at Holyrood in 2026.
But that prospect now seems unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the party was on course for “one hell of a battering” while the SNP, Reform and the Greens could do well.
In Wales, the picture is more complicated, given the change in the electoral system, the increase in the size of the Senedd and the lowering of the voting age to 16.
Especially in light of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are on course to do well at Labour’s expense....<<<Read More>>>...
