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Saturday 9 May 2020

Ministers are obsessed with 'irrelevant' R-value that is skewed by care home crisis, MPs and scientists warn

[Daily Mail]: Lockdown could be needlessly prolonged because of the Government's obsession with bringing the 'irrelevant' R value down, MPs and scientists have warned.

Ministers are relying on the reproductive 'R' figure – the average number of people a coronavirus patient infects - to tell them when it will be safe to unlock the country.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that keeping the R below 1 is the most important of five tests that must be passed before returning to normal life.

But ministers have been advised against the strategy because the infection rate measure has been skewed upwards by the escalating crisis in care homes.

Experts believe the R is hovering at a stable 0.5 in the community, because people are no longer having regular face-to-face contact with others.

But the ongoing crisis tearing through care homes has driven up the rate to 0.9 in some areas, which may be spooking the Government, according to one senior MP.

If the R figure is above one, it means the disease is continuing to spread rather than gradually fading away.

The R was estimated to be as high as 4 at the start of Britain's outbreak, but is now between 0.5 and 0.9 nationally.

Officials have teased data revealing more accurate transmission rates in the community in different parts of the country – but they've refused to make it public....<<<Read The Full Article Here>>>...