If covid vaccines saved 20 million lives, why did so few unvaccinated die in winter 2021?

Despite the 'pandemic response' being a non-issue in the General Election (all parties were compliant and consequently complicit in the single most disastrous policy ever followed by any Government) the issue of vaccine harms hasn't entirely gone away. A paper published in the BMJ Public Health journal and covered in a front page piece by Sarah Knapton in the Telegraph gave the issue much needed credence. 

This was followed by David Davis MP repeating a call for a proper inquiry into excess deaths and a post from Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, published on their Substack Trust the Evidence and reprinted in the Daily Sceptic.

Heneghan and Jefferson state:
Suddenly, it's okay to question the vaccine narrative. The Lancet estimated that vaccinations prevented 19·8 million excess deaths. Mathematical modelling should not be used to justify the policy — the latest report shows the numbers don't add up. Of course, it isn't only the Lancet that has relied on nonsensical mathematical modelling to justify widespread adoption of mRNA technology. 

Disappointingly, both Rod Liddle and Fraser Nelson in recent articles published in the Times and Telegraph respectively repeated the farcical claim that the AstraZeneca vaccine saved six million lives. Claims that 500,000 lives were saved by lockdown, that 20 million lives were saved by mRNA vaccines or six million were saved by AstraZeneca all rely on modelling. However, we have real-world data that paint a very different picture....<<<Read More>>>...