We’re Stuck in the Escalation Trap — And Here’s Why It May Cost Us Everything

 The current war in Iran is a textbook case of tactical success leading to strategic disaster. The assumption that precision air power can control political outcomes is a dangerous illusion -- one that has cost us wars from Kosovo to Vietnam. Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago, whose work I’ve followed closely, warns that this trap is now swallowing the entire Middle East. Here’s why this matters: We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe that will hit every American’s wallet and security.

In my reporting on this conflict, I’ve seen the same pattern repeat: a leader believes a few surgical strikes will collapse a regime, only to find the enemy lashes back in unexpected ways. The 1999 Kosovo campaign, which Pape analyzed, saw Bill Clinton’s limited air strikes trigger a devastating refugee crisis instead of toppling Milosevic. Today, President Trump has fallen into the same trap. He thought bombing Iran’s leadership would end the conflict quickly, but instead Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz and taking 15–17 percent of global oil off the market ^[1]. This is not a mistake; it’s a systemic failure of strategy that repeats itself because policymakers refuse to learn from history...<<<Read More>>>...